Tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track
for El Niño in 2014
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Niño in 2014, with just over half of the
climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño will become established
by August. An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of
an El Niño developing in 2014.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have
increased steadily since February, and are now greater than +0.5 °C in the
key NINO regions. However, above-average SSTs also extend into the
western tropical Pacific, meaning strong west to east gradients in tropical
Pacific SST anomalies are yet to become established. As a result,
atmospheric indicators—such as the Southern Oscillation Index and
trade winds—have only shown a weak response.
For Australia, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall
over southern and eastern inland areas and above-normal daytime
temperatures over southern parts of the continent. It is not uncommon
to see some impacts prior to an event becoming fully established.
May rainfall was below normal across parts of eastern Australia and
maximum temperatures were above normal across much of the south and east.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest
the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter, with two of the five models
surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop during spring. Positive IOD
events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts
of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
Next update expected on 17 June 2014