El nino 2014

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 5 June 2014   ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch   Synopsis: The chance of El Niño is 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and reaches 80% during the fall and winter. Above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) expanded over the equatorial Pacific Ocean during May 2014 (Fig. 1), though the collective atmospheric and oceanic state continued to reflect ENSO-neutral. All of the Niño indices increased during the month, with the latest weekly values between 0.6oC and 1.6oC (Fig. 2). In contrast, subsurface temperature anomalies decreased over the last two months (Fig. 3), but still reflect a large pool of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). The low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remain near average, except for westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific. At upper-levels, anomalous easterly winds have predominated over most of the equatorial Pacific. Unlike the previous month, convection was near average across most of the tropics (Fig. 5). The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive SSTs indicates ENSO-neutral, though the tropical Pacific continues to evolve toward El Niño. Over the last month, the chance of El Niño and its ultimate strength weakened slightly in the models (Fig. 6). Regardless, the forecasters remain just as confident that El Niño is likely to emerge. If El Niño forms, the forecasters and most dynamical models, such as NCEP CFSv2, slightly favor a moderate-strength event during the Northern Hemisphere fall or winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 1.0oC and 1.4oC). However, significant uncertainty accompanies this prediction, which remains inclusive of a weaker or stronger event due to the spread of the models and their skill at these lead times. Overall, the chance of El Niño is 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and reaches 80% during the fall and winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecastfor the chance of each outcome). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forumof CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 July 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to:ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov. Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

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ENSO Wrap-Up Current state of the Pacific and Indian Ocean Tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track  for El Niño in 2014 Issued on Tuesday 3 June 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO The tropical Pacific Ocean remains on track for El Niño in 2014, with just over half of the  climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggesting El Niño will become established  by August. An El Niño ALERT remains in place, indicating at least a 70% chance of  an El Niño developing in 2014. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have  increased steadily since February, and are now greater than +0.5 °C in the  key NINO regions. However, above-average SSTs also extend into the  western tropical Pacific, meaning strong west to east gradients in tropical  Pacific SST anomalies are yet to become established. As a result,  atmospheric indicators—such as the Southern Oscillation Index and  trade winds—have only shown a weak response. For Australia, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall  over southern and eastern inland areas and above-normal daytime  temperatures over southern parts of the continent. It is not uncommon  to see some impacts prior to an event becoming fully established.  May rainfall was below normal across parts of eastern Australia and  maximum temperatures were above normal across much of the south and east. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest  the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter, with two of the five models  surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop during spring. Positive IOD  events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts  of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual. Next update expected on 17 June 2014